Forex Blog

Let’s do a quick analysis of the Euro and see what we come up with. It’s obvious the Euro has been trending down ever since the overall high of 1.6038 making an incredible drop to 1.2329, that’s a 23% devaluation in roughly 4 months.

Using Fibonacci and measuring this incredible drop in price we get our retracement points to this move. Looking at how price has reacted to these levels we can see defined support and resistance created at or around these levels. In the example below (Figure 1) we have the Euro weekly and the downtrend measured. Highlighted you’ll see the points that the market has retraced to and each time was successively lower each time, most lately retesting the 38.2 Level or the (Short) level. I say the short level but the market can retrace to the 61.8 level and still remain a short market, its just if price can be maintained below these levels it remains in a short condition. In order for the downside pressure to be relived the market will have to break the 61.8% level and be maintained above that and well see a Long market once again.

Figure 1

Now if we take this one step further and we measure the amount of price that has retraced into this downtrend, we will get the support points. If these support points (from the amount of retracement we get) show support and price bounces from them, we know that price will make another attempt to break the downward momentum and try to break that Downtrend Long level. In (Figure 2) we now measure the retracement to find out if an attempt to break Long will be underway what we find is support fails and the downtrend will continue. This is telling us the Downtrend is still prevailing.

Many times I’ve seen a trader with one Fibonacci retracement tool on a small timeframe and wondering why price is not reaching a level or seemingly turning at a empty space on the charts. The reasoning for this is that Fib levels are traded from many different timeframes all at the same time and its best to know where all the higher timeframe levels are especially when trading from a small timeframe of 1 hour.

The object is to start from a higher timeframe here so that the trader can be aware of where the higher timeframe support and resistance levels are. In this example Ill set up a chart and make an analysis of each timeframe before stepping down to the next lower one. What this can do is help you to gain a perspective of price movement so that you can be prepared once price begins to move and you will not be at a loss as to why your trades do not work out.

In this example I'll use the EURUSD which is currently the most commonly traded pair and is easiest to trade. We want to start with the weekly and determine if there is trending in the markets and what direction is of that trend. First lets separate the chart into recent trending movements and ranging periods. Figure 1 depicts the ranging periods

Figure 1

Figure 2 is the same chart with the trending periods.

Figure 2

Simple, but I just want to make sure everyone understands the difference between ranging and trending.

Forex Training Video On How We Use The Fibonacci Retracement Levels

In this Forex training video I strip down the Fibonacci tool so we can focus on the three main inner levels of the tool. The Fibonacci retracements are a critical part of trading as they provide entry points into the market where you are buying at wholesale. Remember you want to buy at wholesale and sell at retail to make money. Once again we use the Fibonacci to to frame the market and create our market lens. We do not use it as some magical indicator. It provides great opportunities to make money trading Forex; when used logically.

This week we'll look at using the Fibonacci retracement tool to gauge price movement and give some pointers on using the Fibonacci retracement tool. In this example we'll use the USD/Yen and start from the 4 hour perspective. (Figure 1) is the starting point where we watch the retracement. After making a high we see price begin to fall, find mild support and begin to move back up. As it moves back up we can use the fib tool to point out the resistance levels to price.

Figure 1

As it moves back up we watch the price action as price comes into contact with the resistance levels. We find that selling pressure is present and a short trade becomes possible.